A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
