Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
